The Media’s Senate Flip Fantasy
There are only 26 days remaining until Election Day. This is the stage of an election where the “October Surprise” makes its appearance. Get ready. It could happen any day.
Last week, I explained how the legacy media use repetition, coordination and bootstrapping to turn political narratives into what passes for news. Repeat a story often enough, have enough outlets reinforce it and cite one another as proof, and even a weak narrative begins to look credible.
That’s exactly what’s happening in this year’s Senate races. There are continual stories about how the Democrats may take control of the Senate.
Reporters point to nine races in Kansas, Ohio, Texas, South Carolina, North Carolina, Alaska, Maine, Nebraska and Iowa as evidence that the Democrats are within reach of flipping four seats from Republican to Democrat in order to gain control of the Senate.
That’s the propaganda narrative you’ll read every day. Here’s the reality. Kansas, Nebraska, South Carolina and Iowa are Republican-leaning states. When the media says these races are “close” or “in play,” you have to read the details buried in the back pages. They are relying on the fact that the races may be getting closer as Election Day approaches, but that does not necessarily put Democrats ahead.
A prominent super PAC just announced plans to spend $5 million to help Darline Graham, the Republican running in South Carolina. Big donors don’t waste money on losing races.
It’s also important to realize that these media narratives rely on polls that can themselves be biased. Pollsters can oversample Democrats and particular demographic groups, including Black voters, younger women and residents of heavily Democratic states. If those imbalances aren’t corrected through weighting, the results can be skewed in favor of Democrats.
If you see a poll that puts a Democrat two points ahead, you should not automatically assume the Democrat is actually winning.
Media outlets also rely on the Cook Political Report moving some races into more competitive categories. But a race rated “Lean Republican” still favors the Republican, so The New York Times is stretching when it treats such a rating as evidence of an impending Democratic victory.
The Cook Political Report has a notorious pro-Democrat bias, so its assessments should be discounted accordingly. This is an example of “bootstrapping” — using one narrative to support another and make it all look like news.
Ohio and Texas are closer, but Republicans are preparing to spend heavily on campaign advertising in both states, mostly in Texas. The Democrat in Ohio, Sherrod Brown, lost his last Senate election, and he’s running against an incumbent Republican senator, Jon Husted. It’s hard to unseat an incumbent.
Texas is an open seat, but Democrat James Talarico’s positions on transgender issues, immigration and religion give Republicans plenty of ammunition for attack ads. Good luck with that platform in Texas. There won’t be much left of him after the attack ads are done.
Maine is not close in my assessment. The Republican, Susan Collins, is well positioned to win. She’s running for her sixth term, has seniority in the Senate and brings home the bacon for Maine. She’ll win.
I’ll give the Democrats Alaska and North Carolina. They’ll probably win both of those races. That’s plus two for the Democrats. They need four.
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The Democratic Seats Nobody’s Talking About
But all of this analysis ignores the fact that Democrats have to defend their own seats. It’s not enough to take Republican seats. They have to hang on to what they’ve got.
There are four Democratic seats in some jeopardy — New Hampshire, Georgia, Minnesota and Michigan. I’ve been writing for weeks that Republicans have a good chance to win the open seat in New Hampshire, currently held by a Democrat who is retiring.
The Republican candidate is John E. Sununu, who is part of a popular political dynasty in New Hampshire. His father and brother were both governors of the state. The national media are just beginning to focus on this story, but we’ve been telling readers to watch New Hampshire since last summer.
Minnesota is another race that’s off the media radar but very much in play because of the unpopularity of leading Democrats in that state amid multibillion-dollar fraud scandals involving government programs, including daycare and other social services.
The Democrat running in Michigan, Abdulrahman Mohamed El-Sayed, favors wealth taxes and other progressive policies that Republicans will attack as extreme. He has also received support from controversial political commentator Hasan Piker. Georgia is close, but I still expect the Democrats to hold it.
It’s not necessary at this stage to call every race. It’s enough to look at three close races — Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire — and give the Republicans a win in at least one.
That outcome reduces the net Democratic gain to one seat, enough to move the needle from a 53–47 Republican majority to 52–48, but not enough to take control.
Trump Takes His Message on the Road
Finally, Trump himself has hit the campaign trail big time. He announced a new multibillion-dollar steelmaking facility in Iowa. He went to the Baltimore area to announce a $6.6 billion investment package for submarine manufacturing. He has made three trips to Ohio and is heading to Texas soon.
Trump can be relied on to announce new investments or new government contracts at each chosen location. Whether these trips make the national news is irrelevant. What matters is the local coverage, which can give voters a favorable view of the Republican message.
We’ll focus more on the House races in next week’s report. In the meantime, brace yourself for shock headlines. Indictments of senior Biden and Obama administration officials may be right around the corner.
That would shake the establishment to its core and give Trump his ultimate October Surprise.
All the best,
Jim Rickards
Editor, Strategic Intelligence